Voting in the US general election begins today. More than 100 million voters will determine the owner of the White House for the next four years. It is expected that on the voting night (tomorrow noon, Malaysia time), we will know who wins. The town of Dixville Pass in New Hampshire began voting at midnight (1 pm Malaysia time today). This was the first polling station in the United States. A Republican man voted for Biden, the Democratic presidential candidate. Biden took all 5 votes in the town.
As for the town of Misfield, another town in New Hampshire, Trump won 16 votes out of 21 votes, and Biden won 5 votes. Trump currently leads by 6 votes.
Due to the sparse population in the area, according to state laws, votes can be opened immediately. Voting in other regions starts at 6 am EDT (7 pm Malaysia time).
Nearly 100 million people have voted in advance
Before polling day, more than 97 million voters in the United States had voted in advance. It is equivalent to 70% of the total voter turnout in the previous 2016 general election, of which more than 6,000 voted by mail. The three most populous states in the United States are the states with the most people voting early. Among them, California has 11 million votes, Texas and Florida have 9.7 million and 8.7 million voters respectively.
Counting disputes or disrupting the situation
Based on multiple polls, Biden currently leads Trump by 9%, while Biden has a 9% advantage in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin. However, in Florida, which has 29 electoral votes, Biden is only leading by 2%.
Trump criticized some states for extending the time to receive mailed ballots. Trump has always claimed that counting votes by mail will lead to fraud. If the two get close to each other, the Supreme Court may decide to repeat the vote-counting dispute between Bush and Gore in Florida in the 2000 election.
The current president, owns the Trump Group, a large-scale US conglomerate, whose business covers real estate, retail, media in the reality TV show “Flying Huang Tengda”.
He participated in the primary election of the President of the Reform Party for the first time. In 2016, he played in the Republican presidential primaries and received much attention due to controversial and false statements. In the end, he defeated the Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and became the first president of the United States who has never held a military or public office.
Last year, due to a telephone call with Ukrainian President Zelensky to pressure Uzbekistan to investigate his opponent Biden, he was impeached by the House of Representatives on charges of abuse of power and obstructing the Congress’s investigation.
Trump, who neglected the epidemic, was diagnosed with coronary disease in October, was admitted to the hospital for treatment.
Biden was elected to the Delaware Senate for the first time in 1972 and was re-elected 5 times.
In 1988, he ran for the presidential election for the first time, but he withdrew from the election because he was accused of plagiarism. In 2008, he ran for the election again. It was launched due to poor election conditions. In the same year, he was invited by the then-Democratic presidential candidate Obama to be his campaign partner and won the general election as Vice President.
In 2016, Biden gave up running for the election due to the death of his eldest son from brain cancer and insufficient time to prepare for the election.
After announcing his candidacy for president for the third time last year, his former female staff and other women appeared to accuse him of sexual assault or improper contact. Biden denied the allegations.
U.S. media quoted news reports that Trump plans to reorganize the White House cabinet on a large scale after the successful re-election. He will mainly attack the health and intelligence departments and fire officials suspected of infidelity, poor execution or opposition to him. However, the core members of the White House remain unchanged, and Secretary of State Pompeo, Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin, and White House Chief of Staff Meadows will remain in office to continue the White House policy.
The US media POLITICO reported that in terms of public health, Secretary of Health Hazard, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Redfield, and President of the National Institutes of Health Collins will take a stand opposite to Trump in handling the coronavirus epidemic.
As for national security, FBI Director Christopher, CIA Director Haspel, and Defense Secretary Esper may not be able to stay.
In addition, Secretary of Commerce Ross has a tough stance on China and is an important driver of the U.S. trade war with China. However, reports indicate that he is not in tune with Trump and may not be able to transition to the new Trump team with Education Secretary De Vos.
Worries about violence after the election
American business leaders urge that after the presidential election, even if the outcome of the presidential election is controversial. Leading to riots on the streets and within the enterprise, all walks of life should remain calm. The worries of business leaders can be seen from the fact that retail stores in many cities in the United States have used wooden boards to seal their windows to avoid post-election turmoil, and business executives are also worried about the public’s post-election response.
At present, major cities in the United States are preparing for possible riots on election day. In Washington, which may be a focus area for demonstrations, shops. Other businesses within a few blocks of the White House have closed on Monday.
Data expert “decision table” forecasts media cautiously seek accuracy
Due to the rapid increase in the number of people who voted in advance or by mail. Different from vying to report the results of previous general elections. Many media have adopted a cautious approach this time and strive to report accurately. It is to avoid recurring the mistake of prematurely judging the winners in the 2000 election turmoil. Some media have also emphasized that the counting process may take a long time. Don’t expect to know the result on the night of the election.
Many media have set up a “decision table” composed of data experts to predict the outcome of the general election. The Associated Press has been predicting results since 1848.
The Associated Press’s prediction accuracy in the 2016 election was as high as 99.8%. This election will use the new forecasting system “AP VoteCast” to send more than 4,000 reporters across the country to collect polling station data. Analyze whether there are any abnormal numbers in the program.
Although the Fox TV station, which is pro-Trump, refers to the analysis of the Associated Press, like other TV stations. It has a “decision table” responsible for predicting winners in each state. Makes a final judgment after combining different data. As for the American Broadcasting Company (ABC), CBS, CNN, and NBC, they form the “U.S. Election Pool”, which pools resources to collect votes.
Twitter bans early victory
Major social networking sites also strictly guard against fake news related to election results. According to Twitter, after the election day, candidates will not be allowed to declare victory before there is a clear result, nor can they post or repost posts encouraging others to speculate on the election results. Facebook used artificial intelligence algorithms to lower the display order of posts promoting violence or election fake news. Google also cooperated with the Associated Press to provide authoritative election results. Prohibit advertisements related to the general election from appearing after election day.
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