The researchers reported a model for estimating the number of new COVID-19 infections.
According to the researchers, social distance is an effective intervention in all situations. Meanwhile, other forms of transmission rate depend on the probability of transmission.
A study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) showed that social evacuations may be an effective tool for intervention in all situations, but the relative effectiveness of “social bubbling”. It defined as limiting contact to a small number of people and Compared with other forms of transmission rate. It affects by higher or lower intensity transmission probability. Coronavirus is a global pandemic, with more than 25 million cases worldwide. Currently, treatment is limited and there is no approved vaccine. Interventions such as wash hands, wear masks, social distance and “social bubbles”. Those are to limit the spread of the community. But, but choosing the best intervention for a given activity is challenging.
Moreover, the researchers participating in the study provided a “simple” model of the spread of coronavirus in workplaces, events, and other places. They use the reported single incident, short-term outbreak data to estimate the spread of the incident, the number of contacts and the incident rate, and then use these data to predict how many new infections will occur in various events under the known incident .
A single infectious individual.
The researchers then determined which type of intervention would be the most effective in reducing the number of COVID-19 infections-reducing the transmission rate (such as wearing a mask), social distancing (reducing the number of people in contact) or bubbling (keeping the number of contact groups) Less and consistent).
The team participating in the research introduced the concept of “event R”. It is the expected number of new infections caused by only one infectious individual in the event. They obtain the basic relationship between the event R and the four parameters-the intensity of transmission, the duration of exposure, the closeness of the individual, and the degree of mixing.
Furthermore, small-scale outbreak reports are determine the event R and the intensity of transmission in a series of settings. This study determined the principles that guide physical distance, masks and other communication barriers or social bubbles are the most effective principles.
In all cases, interventions to increase the distance are effective.
However, in an already static event, the relative importance of reducing propagation in the linear case is much greater. For mixed events, bubbling is a very powerful intervention in saturation, but in linear cases, bubbling is less effective.
As more activities resume, a series of new outbreak settings may be reported. So far, the largest outbreaks reported so far naturally include cases that have occurred over many days. It also have occurred in long-term care facilities, meat and poultry packaging facilities, correctional facilities, and other high-spreading environments. In a closed environment with a fixed population. If the duration of the event is defined as the duration of contagion. Then the event R is the classic “basic reproduction number” R0R0 (the number of new infections that an individual expects to produce after completely infected) susceptible crowd.
All in all, the study suggests that organizers, workplaces, companies, etc. It can seek to determine whether their environment is linear or saturated. It also can see whether people are strongly mix or remain small groups (or bubbles).