Figuring out what voters think during an election year is an imperfect art. The LUX analysis software from ICG Solutions is able to do this job.
Polling vs sentiment analysis
There is plenty of polling during election years. However, the accuracy of the results is doubtful. For instance, poll results stated that Donald Trump is not going to win during this election, which is not accurate. Even though sentiment analysis was in its early stage during 2016, but it was able to predict the potential win of Trump through data.
Today, polling has become more accurate as pollsters have discovered the weaknesses in their numbers. For example, many people don’t tell the truth when asked whom will they vote. Besides, calling voters with landlines also causes inaccuracy in the results as some demographic groups have a few landlines.
On the other hand, sentiment analysis has its built-in sampling issues on social media. Sentiment analysis also has disadvantages like it may miss some demographic groups like elderly voters as they are based on social media. But it appeared to be expressed more truthfully when compared with pollster calls.
Uses feeds from several social media sites
The LUX analysis software from ICG Solutions takes all of the data streams from social media sites and applies a series of rules to them. It will then filter out non-voters for the U.S. election and determine demographics like gender, location, age and political party. It will also analyze whether the user applies to the election. Those that do are also analyzed for specific issues to ensure the accuracy of the results. The issues include gun control, health care, Covid-19 or debate behaviour.
Besides, users can watch the voter sentiment change in real-time by going to Political Analysis and click on Experimental section. Users could observe the voter sentiment plots change when the first presidential debate is progressing on 29 September 2020.
Longer-term sentiment results give out a deeper analysis
Watching the results in a longer-term by selecting a view as long as a month or three months is probably more useful, especially it is a negative sentiment. For example, long-term results of Republican voters showing negative sentiment toward the president shows two indications. First, Republican may decide to change vote to Democratic. Second, they may just not be voting in the presidential race.
Right now, the sentiment analysis is showing a level of positive sentiment for the Joe Biden candidacy. At the same time shows a level of negative sentiment toward the Donald Trump candidacy. Whether the results performed by LUX Elections 2020 accurately reflect voter behaviour remains to be seen.
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